EIA revises its forecast for 2018 U.S. crude production

The EIA has adjusted downward its projections for U.S. crude oil production growth in 2018, according to its most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on Tuesday, but the agency still raised the total U.S. crude oil production expected for 2018.

The agency is now forecasting that U.S. crude oil output will rise by 560,000 barrels per day in 2018, down from last month’s projection of 570,000 barrels per day for 2018.  Still, the EIA’s forecast for average U.S. crude oil production in 2018 has been revised upward, based on revised 2017 production growth figures.

According to the latest STEO, 2018’s average crude oil production in the United States is expected to reach 9.91 million barrels per day. Last month’s report had 2018 average US crude oil production at 9.9.

For 2017, the EIA revised upward the average daily production. The latest STEO shows 2017 production at 9.35 million bpd, while last month’s report had it at only 9.33 million bpd.

A similar projection was given in today’s STEO for the demand side of the equation—while 2018 demand growth is expected to rise only 330,000 bpd instead of 360,000 bpd in the previous month’s report, 2017 demand is expected to grow by 340,000 bpd, compared to last month’s estimate of only 310,000 bpd.

The EIA is forecasting that global petroleum and liquid fuels inventory will increase by an average of 0.2 million barrels per day in 2018.

On a positive note, the STEO shows that in July, commercial petroleum inventories in the OECD countries declined by the most (year over year) since April 2014.

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